Machines vs. humans: The battle has been waged by Bobby Fisher, Arnold Schwarzenegger and astronauts in Space Odyssey 2001.

Recently, it’s been waged in college football as well, as math wizards developed their own programs to determine national rankings and pitted their work against the final poll published by The Associated Press.

When the Bowl Championship Series was created in 1998, it didn’t include computer rankings. The next year, three computer rankings were averaged and included in the standings. This year, the BCS is using eight computer rankings.

The computer average is then combined with four other factors – human polls, strength of schedule, losses and quality wins – in creating the BCS rankings, which determine the teams that meet in the national championship.

‘The computer rankings used to be a lot different than the press,’ said Wesley Colley, the creator of the Colley Matrix Rankings system. ‘Now, they’re very similar. I think, and it’s wild speculation, that the press is looking at the computer rankings and it’s affecting their rankings.’

That means good things for non-BCS teams like No. 12 Northern Illinois, ranked as high as No. 6 in one computer poll and No. 15 Texas Christian, ranked as high as No. 4 in another, which are traditionally overlooked for major bowl games.

Colley, an astronomy teacher at Virginia, has a doctorate in astrophysics from Princeton and a doctorate from Harvard. And, fittingly, his system is nearly impossible to understand.

Each team’s record is compiled and then combined with the record of its opponents. Then that is combined with the record of their opponents’ opponents. The process is carried out an infinite number of times by the computer.

Colley’s dedication to math began as a child, when he earned nearly straight As and participated on his high school’s ‘college bowl’ team. Colley, though, is quick to insist that sports were also a major part of his routine.

‘I also played tennis and basketball, so I wasn’t the uber-geek,’ Colley said.

Colley’s infatuation with college football began with his brother, Will, a two-year letterwinner in football at Georgia.

Colley’s initial goal, which was to prove that ‘name teams’ – like Notre Dame and Michigan – fare better in the polls than they should because of name recognition, failed. While he found out that ‘name teams’ were often overrated early in the season, postseason polls were fairly consistent with those his computer generated.

Instead, in 2001, he was contacted by former Southeastern Conference Commissioner Roy Kramer, who questioned Colley about how his computer poll worked. Eventually, he used Colley’s pet-project to help determine a national champion.

Likewise, Kenneth Massey, who has been operating a poll on a website since 1995 after developing it as a senior honors project at Bluefield College, was shocked when Kramer called him.

‘You don’t have the commissioner of the SEC calling fans every day,’ Massey said. ‘He called me out of the blue, and I was studying for a test and I was kind of out of it. It was just surprising to hear from him.’

Massey is currently working on his doctorate at Virginia Tech. After attending Hokie football games since he was a child, Massey now hopes his computer program will decide Virginia Tech’s fate this season.

‘I’ve been a football fan as long as I can remember,’ Massey said. ‘I made my first system in 1995, and by coincidence that was the first year we were any good. I never paid that much attention to the polls because we were never in them.’

Colley created his system in 2000, and one year later, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution began printing his rankings. After the first week, mail from angry customers flooded the newspaper.

‘After the first week, everyone was like, ‘Aw hell, damn, I coulda picked the team’s that won over the team’s that lost,” Colley said with a fake Southern drawl.

While Colley publishes results all year so people can understand the system – with one game in the first week this year, Kansas State was the No. 1 team, California was the worst team and everyone else was tied for No. 2 – Massey holds off publishing his until November.

‘It’s usually in the ballpark,’ Massey said, ‘but if I was voting now, I’m sure I’d have a few things different.

‘But by the end of the season, I trust the computer more than I do people.’

Purdue (+4.5) at Michigan (3:30, ABC)

The pollsters may rank Michigan in the top 15, but the computers don’t favor the Wolverines. With two losses to ranked opponents, Michigan has plummeted from No. 4. Highly touted Purdue junior quarterback Kyle Orton – coming off a 38 of 55, 411-yard performance last week – won’t enjoy his first visit to The Big House and Michigan will earn some respect from the machines.

Pick: Michigan 27, Purdue 17

Northern Illinois (+3.5) at Bowling Green (4 p.m., ESPN 2)

One of two non-BCS teams with a chance to play in a BCS bowl, Northern Illinois’ success has been keyed by its defense, which hasn’t allowed more than 24 points. Bowling Green, though, enters with the Mid-American Conference’s top-rated rushing game and the league’s third-rated offense. P.J. Pope’s success on the ground will key Bowling Green’s big-play offense and help squash Northern Illinois’ BCS dreams.

Pick: Bowling Green 38, Northern Illinois 24

TCU (-5 .5) at Houston (8 p.m.)

The other non-conference fly in the BCS’s ointment, the Horned Frogs have a long road to the BCS with games remaining against Louisville and Southern Mississippi, but Houston won’t pose much of a roadblock. TCU is giving up an average of just 13.7 points per game while Houston’s offense looked atrocious putting up 14 points against Memphis.

Pick: TCU 24, Houston 10

Syracuse (+7) at Pittsburgh (noon, Ch. 26)

Larry Fitzgerald is the Big East’s most dominating player. He has nine touchdowns and almost 300 yards more than any other receiver in the conference. He has more touchdowns than any running back in the Big East and averages nearly 20 yards each time he catches the ball. Syracuse may slow Fitzgerald down, but it’s still-green secondary won’t stop him.

Pick: Pittsburgh 31, Syracuse 21

Auburn (+3.5) at LSU (7:45, ESPN)

LSU, according to the computers, is one of the nation’s most overrated teams along with Virginia Tech. But the Tigers enter this one with the SEC’s top offense and defense. Look for Auburn’s Cadillac Williams, last week’s co-Offensive Player of the Week with 151 yards on 16 carries, to change that.

Pick: Auburn 28, LSU 24

Published on October 22, 2003 at 12:00 pm